Closing the Ambition Gap:
Key Points for Ministers to Avoid 4°C Warming
Current pledges by all countries put the world onto a 3-4°C or more warming pathway, given the low level of ambition, and with many pledges full of loopholes. Any credible outcome on mitigation in Durban must deal with this gap. Ministers in Durban must ensure that the following elements are reflected in the final decision texts related to developed and developing country mitigation:
1. Acknowledge the ambition gap: The Durban outcome must explicitly acknowledge the ambition gap as reported in the UNEP emissions gap report. The report clarifies that current pledges by developed and developing countries will mean that by 2020 global emissions will be 6-11 GtCO2e higher than a 2°C emissions trajectory.
2. Recognise insufficiency of developed countries’ ambition: The Durban outcome must explicitly recognise that current pledges by developed countries fall far short of the agreed 25-40% IPCC range. Current pledges add up to no more than 12-18% reductions below 1990 by 2020. Ambition drops even lower if existing and proposed loopholes take full effect.
3. Ensure the ambition gap does not get bigger in Durban: Rules for the treatment of loopholes are to be decided in Durban. Existing and proposed loopholes have the potential to increase the ambition gap substantially, erasing most if not all of the already weak ambition of developed countries.
Hot Air: Minimise the carry over of unused AAUs from the first commitment period and avoid new hot air entering the system through weak pledges by Parties.
LULUCF: Make accounting mandatory for all emissions and activities, based on rules with highest environmental integrity. Reject current options in the LULUCF text for forest management that would allow forestry emissions to increase without penalty.
Offsets: Agree that carbon offsets from current or new flexible mechanisms used for developed country compliance must not be double counted as both developed and developing country mitigation actions.
4. Launch a one year work programme on the ambition gap to conclude at COP18: A work programme throughout 2012 should further clarify the size of the gap, and identify, and prepare for adoption, options to close the ambition gap. This work programme must be designed so that COP18 can adopt decisions on steps to close the gap. Work programme elements should include:
Updated Technical Paper: By February 2012, countries should provide full clarity on what their net emissions will be in 2020 based on pledges and the assumptions behind them. The secretariat should then update its Technical Paper.
Submissions on 25-40%: Request submissions from Parties and observers on options to move developed countries into the 25-40% range, as a first step, and subsequently to more than 40% below 1990 by 2020.
Increase ambition in developing countries: Encourage developing countries that have not done so yet to put forward NAMAs including information on the support required, and to increase, as appropriate, current ambition of already pledged NAMAs.
Ambition intersessional: 2012 should see an intersessional meeting specifically aimed at increasing overall ambition and closing the gap, including increasing pledges for developed countries, NAMA ambition and support, and other options such as addressing emissions from bunker fuels and inclusion of HFCs.
Space at the high-level segment of COP18 to take action to close the ambition gap, including moving developed countries into the 25-40% IPCC range, as a first step.
5. Set the long-term emissions pathway that keeps us below 1.5°C: Agree that each country shall contribute its fair share to move the world to the required emissions pathway, leading to a peaking of global emissions by 2015 and a reduction of global emissions by at least 80% below 1990 by 2050.
6. Decide that developed countries shall develop low carbon development strategies that outline how they will achieve near-complete decarbonisation by 2050. Mandate SBSTA to develop guidelines for such strategies for adoption by COP18. Encourage developing countries to prepare similar strategies and provide adequate support.
Posted by Philip
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